World Population Prospects 2024: projection variants and intervals
Alternative UN projections of total population to 2100: deterministic variants and the probabilistic prediction intervals.
- Publisher
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
- Release
- 2024
- Licence
- CC BY 3.0 IGO
- Origin
- population.un.org/wpp
- Retrieved
- 26 October 2026
- How to cite
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024, Online Edition.
- Coverage
- 237 of 237 countries and areas, with values from 2024 to 2100.
Indicators and units
| Indicator | Unit | Refers to |
|---|---|---|
| Projection variants | people | 1 July |
| Prediction intervals | people | 1 July |
How we process it
- The total population of every variant read from the WPP file by sex, in people on 1 July, 2024 to 2100.
- The 80 and 95 percent prediction intervals and the median read from the probabilistic projections workbook, and stored apart from the variants with their levels.
Known limitations
- A variant is a scenario with other assumptions, for example higher fertility. It is not a range of likely outcomes and is never shown as one.
- A prediction interval says how uncertain the projection is under the UN’s statistical model, at the stated level.
Downloaded files
| File | SHA-256 |
|---|---|
| WPP2024_TotalPopulationBySex.csv.gz | 66b84489fd7875b62de9b40d960b803b8c8439367c98deab89c2f770970925b9 |
| UN_PPP2024_Output_PopTot.xlsx | a10a0e620d325baa40d800e37b8ef41c2fbc36f56237d7570d91220cdf37d3cb |