Population scenarios
How many people the UN projects for 2050 and 2100, how uncertain that is, and what other assumptions about births, deaths and migration would lead to.
For 2100 the UN projects a world population of 10.2 billion, with a 95% prediction interval from 9.05 billion to 11.4 billion.
UN World Population Prospects 2024: medium projection, probabilistic projections and variants.
- Medium projection
- High fertility scenario
- Low fertility scenario
- 95% prediction interval
See the numbers
| Year | Medium projection | 95% prediction interval | High fertility scenario | Low fertility scenario |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 | 8,569,124,911 | 8,523,150,520–8,613,146,827 | 8,677,546,006 | 8,460,679,168 |
| 2050 | 9,664,378,587 | 9,415,740,461–9,899,898,711 | 10,395,097,515 | 8,942,254,548 |
| 2075 | 10,250,496,432 | 9,622,117,473–10,882,309,801 | 12,380,462,237 | 8,407,565,132 |
| 2100 | 10,180,160,751 | 9,046,832,166–11,437,364,416 | 14,395,160,444 | 6,986,813,938 |
How to use this tool
- 1Choose the World, a region or a country.
- 2Read the medium projection and its shaded prediction intervals.
- 3Add up to two scenarios, such as high fertility or zero migration, to compare.
How it works
The medium projection is the UN World Population Prospects 2024 main result. Its bands are the UN’s probabilistic prediction intervals: by the UN’s statistical model, the population has an 80% or 95% probability of lying within them.
A scenario, or variant, changes one assumption and keeps the rest: higher or lower fertility, fertility constant at today’s level, no migration, unchanged mortality, and others. It shows what that assumption would lead to. It is not a range of likely outcomes and has no probability attached.
All values are total population on 1 July, from the same release, so the medium line and the estimates before 2024 join without a break.
Frequently asked questions
Are the high and low variants the range of uncertainty?
No. They change fertility only. The uncertainty is shown by the prediction intervals, which come from a different, probabilistic method.
How certain is the projection for 2100?
The 95% prediction interval shown in the tool says how wide the range is by the UN’s model. Projections that far ahead depend on fertility assumptions that may not hold.
